Archives for May 2010

In the classic handicappers “how to guide book” written back in the 60’s, Tom Ainslie’s, Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing he stresses a very important rule in thoroughbred wagering and that is, “Bet to Win”!  Yes, you have the option to bet Place and Show but the most logical and rewarding bet is the “WIN” bet.

Here are a few reasons for this strategy:
– Betting to win is the biggest bang for your investment. A somewhat typical pay out on, for example, a 4-1 shot is:
Win $10.00 Place $4.40 Show $3.40
When measuring risk/reward you have to ask yourself “If I’m risking $2, am I willing to only be rewarded $1.40?” Sure, the horse has a better chance to pay off but what if he finishes 4th or 7th or 12th? I get nothing.
A place bet is not much better and in many cases it’s a double. Typically the place bet is doubling your money. But is that a good risk/reward? At most it’s fair.

The win bet, however, takes your reward from two times the initial bet into the 3X, 5X, 10X and into some real nice returns. In this instance a $2 bet to win would pay $10. Now that is a handsome return.

– I don’t have to be right so often. If I hit only 1 race out of 5 win bets and it pays like the example above then I break even. I bet five races for two dollars each, it’s $10 and one pay out of $10 makes my day a wash… even. But with the place bets you can only be wrong about half of the time. And show bets, well you need to be right most of the time. I like to use the place bet as a hedge against losing my win bet.
A side note: When betting to win I have found that a common variable is that some other horse, many times a longshot, comes out of nowhere to beat my horse. In order to hedge that result I will bet to win and bet an equal amount to place which pays for the win bet if that, in fact, is the case.

– Keeping it simple! A good rule of thumb is to keep your bet simple. Too many bets spoil your results. In para mutuel racing you are betting against other betters so don’t make yourself one of those other betters. Don’t bet against yourself. Concentrate on your desicion and put your money on that choice. It also makes it easier to cheer for your outcome.

– Exotic bets are called that for a reason. The term “exotic” is used for exactas, trifectas, pick 3’s, daily doubles, etc. etc. If it is so hard to pick a winner in horse racing then what makes you think that you can pick 3 or 6 in a row? Or, if picking a winner is such a challenge then why do you think you can pick the correct order of finish for 2 or 5 horses. I’m not saying to not bet them but these are fun bets and you shouldn’t use up too much of your time or your serious betting capital.

You’ll see what I mean when you collect on your first “$20 to Win” bet on a 10-1 shot!

Any of us that grew up before twittering, texting and utube remember the classic movie, The Good, The Bad and The Ugly starring, of course Clint Eastwood, Eli Wallach and Lee Van Cleef among others. Such a cast can be compared to the current state of horse racing in the US.

The Good:
Hats off to Monmouth Park in Oceanport, NJ for taking the reins and doing something new and positive for racing. Their innovative plan is simple, fifty million dollars in a fifty day racing season. The results will be measured after the meet but some of what’s already happening is that they are attracting the best of the best. Jockeys, trainers, owners and all others that make up the sport are headed to “Joisey”.

Large purses, quality people and horses and a clean venue make for a successful business in horse racing. If you don’t believe me just take a look at what makes Keeneland and Del Mar so successful. Good luck to you all at Monmouth Park. Bravo!

The Bad:
Can you say NYRA? The New York horse racing concern that is all but busted. In business we all learn the #1 success rule: location, location, location. Well in New York, where they are abundantly blessed with a massive population looking for somewhere to spend their entertainment dollars, the racing business is bankrupt. The politicians and the NYRA fat cats have regulated, skimmed and schemed the golden goose and now it’s up for slaughter. Anyone who knows anything about running a business can take a look at the facilities in New York (except Saratoga) and see why they have lost the customer base. Good news for the bad situation is that it can be turned around but they need some energetic, insightful, hard working and unselfish leadership. Donald Trump? Regis Philbun? Somebody? Superman!

The Ugly:
Magna Entertainment=very ugly! This Canadian company has all but destroyed horse racing in their effort to own it all. Take the latest in California. Oak Tree is a racing meet without a track. They have been leasing a track to hold their meet from Santa Anita(one of the many Magna tracks). Here comes the money grubbing Magna asking for more lease money than originally agreed to in an industry that is struggling. Luckily, Hollywood and Del Mar have offered to help Oak Tree find a venue for their meet.

Now that just sounds like a simple business transaction except for one side issue. Oak Tree is a “not for profit association” and all its profit after the season is given to charities.

Sorry Magna, a charity you are not, by a long shot! Your company has already divided and monopolized the industry, do you have to gouge charities too?

Unbelievable as it may sound, the Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York will be open for it’s late summer meet. Was there actually any doubt? Oh my, yes, there was doubt and, yes, there was a slight chance that the track might be closed, and that my friends, is unbelievable and incorrigible and disgraceful and despicable.

New York Racing Association has lost it’s way. Even the Belmont Race Track season is in jeopardy as well as the off track betting parlors of the state of New York. And from what I’m hearing the whole situation is a disgusting mess. Aqueduct is next to being in shambles, the betting parlors are absolutely filthy and the fat cats that run the business (into the ground) are getting fatter than phat!

This is the sacred ground for horse racing. It’s where it all started over a century ago. New York is home and Saratoga is the heart to the hollowed Hall of Fame of thoroughbred racing. What a shame, what an awful shame.
According to the Associated Press:

Paterson: NYRA, Saratoga meet will be saved!

New York Gov. David Paterson says a proposed state bailout will pass and New York thoroughbred racing at Belmont and Saratoga race tracks will go on as scheduled.

Paterson was asked in a news conference if NYRA will run out of money before the Saratoga summer meet, as NYRA officials warned Monday.”That’s not going to happen,” Paterson said. “We have a plan to loan NYRA, in the short term, money to get through Saratoga and we’re working on a long-term plan to help beyond that.”

It sure sounds like the horse shit isn’t only in the barns… it’s in the NYRA offices too! Someone needs to get shoveling!

Most all those who are familiar with horse racing in America have seen the movie “Seabiscuit” and many of us who love horse racing are really looking forward to going to theaters in October to see the new release of “Secretariat”. There are several other classics about horse racing or have scenes from the race track that have been enjoyable over the years.
But for my money, there has been no movie about horse racing that was funnier or more entertaining than Jay Trotter’s day at the track in the 1989 film “Let It Ride”.

Most of the scenes are filmed in Hialeah Race Track in Florida, which was later closed in 2001 and reopened on November 28, 2009. The casting was wonderful with Richard Dryfuss, David Johansen, Jennifer Tilly and the incomparable Teri Garr.

If you’ve always dreamed about one day at the track when everything goes your way, you’ll love this performance. Great horse racing dialog and some great lines like, “I’m having a very good day!” And, my favorite, when Tilly’s character makes the statement, “You know, there’s a fine line between winning and losing”. And Trotter (Dryfuss) quickly retorts, “Yea, the finish line”.

If you can’t find it in your local movie rental store, you can get it through Netflix for sure or better yet, order it through Amazon.com so you can view it every year or so. I’ll bet a sawbuck it will become one of your top ten favorites.

As I was working out on my elliptical machine I had one eye on the lap meter and both ears on two so called sports commentators on ESPN’s PMI (Pardon My Interruption). As they were going down the list of sports issues the topic popped up, “the chances of Super Saver to win the triple crown”. Woh, that struck a nerve! Both quickly turned on horse racing as a viable sport and agreed that nobody cares anymore.
Granted, the sport of kings has lost it’s way and needs some guidance but I digress. To sit there and poo-poo horse racing and then spend 10 minutes of expensive air time discussing why or why not Philly fans should be hit with a tazer when they run out onto the field of play, Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon, shame on you!

Nobody cares? Nobody cares!

How about these facts:
– 155,804 fans stood out in the rain for hours to view the classic event. MLB, PGA and NASCAR would have told everyone to go on home.

-Why was wagering on the 13-race card – from all sources $112.7 million which was an increase of 7.8 per cent? And in a down economy, because nobody cares?

-16.5 million people watched Super Saver win the Derby making it the most-watched Derby in 21 years. Dying sport?

-NBC earned a rating during the derby of 10.3, the highest in 18 years. And, compared to the other sports on TV Saturday afternoon? Well, let’s see NBA Western Conf. semi finals 4.7, the final round of the PGA’s Quail Hollow tournament 2.8 and NHL’s Eastern Conference semifinals between Boston and Philadelphia got a 1.6 rating on NBC

-The ratings actually rate right behind the final round of The Masters! Wow, and how much air time did that get?

Horse racing is in transition again. But it is full of history, brimming with diversity, set in natural beauty, flavored with a wonderful wagering system, spiced with characters throughout and blessed with those who want nothing more than for it to survive as the true sport of kings and queens that it truly is.