In the classic handicappers “how to guide book” written back in the 60’s, Tom Ainslie’s, Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing he stresses a very important rule in thoroughbred wagering and that is, “Bet to Win”! Yes, you have the option to bet Place and Show but the most logical and rewarding bet is the “WIN” bet.
Here are a few reasons for this strategy:
– Betting to win is the biggest bang for your investment. A somewhat typical pay out on, for example, a 4-1 shot is:
Win $10.00 Place $4.40 Show $3.40
When measuring risk/reward you have to ask yourself “If I’m risking $2, am I willing to only be rewarded $1.40?” Sure, the horse has a better chance to pay off but what if he finishes 4th or 7th or 12th? I get nothing.
A place bet is not much better and in many cases it’s a double. Typically the place bet is doubling your money. But is that a good risk/reward? At most it’s fair.
The win bet, however, takes your reward from two times the initial bet into the 3X, 5X, 10X and into some real nice returns. In this instance a $2 bet to win would pay $10. Now that is a handsome return.
– I don’t have to be right so often. If I hit only 1 race out of 5 win bets and it pays like the example above then I break even. I bet five races for two dollars each, it’s $10 and one pay out of $10 makes my day a wash… even. But with the place bets you can only be wrong about half of the time. And show bets, well you need to be right most of the time. I like to use the place bet as a hedge against losing my win bet.
A side note: When betting to win I have found that a common variable is that some other horse, many times a longshot, comes out of nowhere to beat my horse. In order to hedge that result I will bet to win and bet an equal amount to place which pays for the win bet if that, in fact, is the case.
– Keeping it simple! A good rule of thumb is to keep your bet simple. Too many bets spoil your results. In para mutuel racing you are betting against other betters so don’t make yourself one of those other betters. Don’t bet against yourself. Concentrate on your desicion and put your money on that choice. It also makes it easier to cheer for your outcome.
– Exotic bets are called that for a reason. The term “exotic” is used for exactas, trifectas, pick 3’s, daily doubles, etc. etc. If it is so hard to pick a winner in horse racing then what makes you think that you can pick 3 or 6 in a row? Or, if picking a winner is such a challenge then why do you think you can pick the correct order of finish for 2 or 5 horses. I’m not saying to not bet them but these are fun bets and you shouldn’t use up too much of your time or your serious betting capital.
You’ll see what I mean when you collect on your first “$20 to Win” bet on a 10-1 shot!