Now for the late comers to the Triple Crown party, or those that didn’t run in the Derby but are racing for the Black Eyed Susans, they are as follows:
There’s Brimstone Island, Cozzeti, Guyana Star Dweej, Pretension, Teeth of the Dog, Tiger Walk and Zetterholm.

Of this list only Zetterholm (winner of 3 in a row and trained by Rich Dutrow) and Teeth of the Dog (3rd in the Wood and trained by Michael Matz) are considered, by this author, to be of some concern.

Since this 2nd leg of the Triple Crown is 1/16 of a mile less than the Derby distance, and that a lot was learned by all involved in the run for the roses, one would have to discern that Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Went the Day Well, Zetterholm and of course I’ll Have Another will be there. With an outside chance for Liaison and Teeth of The Dog to surprise.

Other factors include weather, pace, readiness, strategy and post position just to name a few. The Track Philosopher spends hours figuring all that for you. So stop by, pick up your full Preakness card and head on out to the track or OTB. Or, pop some corn, fix your beverage of choice, bet online and watch it in your TV room.

One thing’s for sure, it’ll be another great race. And if you’re like us you’ll hope it’ll be as exciting and surprising as the Derby. And, that was so exciting that all I can say is, “I’ll Have Another” just like the other!

The first running of the Kentucky Oaks was on May 19, 1875 when Churchill Downs was known as the Louisville Jockey Club. It also happened to be the same year that another famous race tradition began, The Kentucky Derby.
The Kentucky Oaks is a race strictly for 3 yr. old fillies run on the Friday before Derby Day. Today the prize has grown to a half a million dollars and the lily garland of flowers known as “lilies for the fillies”. Because of it’s close proximity to the Derby, the Oaks draws over 100,000 to Churchill Downs. Most derby revelers spend both days enjoying the sites, sounds and action that goes with this mad weekend in Louisville.
If you are planning on attending the Oaks, be aware that you can wear any color this year as long as it’s PINK. And the drink for the day is called an “Oaks Lily”:
* 1 oz. Vodka
* 1 oz. Sweet and Sour Mix
* 3 oz. Cranberry Juice
* Splash of Triple Sec
When the ingredients are mixed, place the pinkish cocktail in an official Oaks Lily® glass (stem-less wine glass) with crushed ice, add a straw and garnish with an orange wedge and cherry.
The Oaks have become a locals favorite since so many out-of-towners crowd the city for the weekend. This is their chance to have their own special “day at the races”.

REPOSTED BY REQUEST

To say that Keeneland’s races are hard to handicap or calculate, or that winning there, from a bettors point of view, with any consistency is about average are both extreme understatements. There are more variables at Keeneland Race Track than there are loosing tickets laying on the concrete down by the rail after the ninth race.

Keeneland’s schedule is so short that horses are coming and going all the time in the barn area. At most, horses will race only once while at Keeneland and only a handful will race two times. The vast majority of horses are flown in or trucked in for the few days preceding the race and maybe a couple days afterward, but it’s just for the one race. And where are they coming from? Everywhere!

On any given day you can go down the list of entrants in a random race and see a compilation of venues that could make one think they’re reading a Travel Log of Great American Race Tracks. And every one of those tracks has it’s own personality, it’s own variables like density and feel of the turf or dirt which makes comparing very difficult. And raises questions like, “Is a mile at 1:39 at Saratoga faster or slower than that same 1:39 mile at Arlington?” And to make matters worse, most of these dirt runners have limited experience with Keeneland’s poly track or any artificial surface for that matter. And some are going to benefit and some are not, but which one? Only the horses know for sure and they’re not talkin’.

Another factor is the size of the field. Keeneland, in most cases, has a full field of 9 to12 horses. Many would say that diminishes the bettors chance of winning. However, I believe that it works to the handicappers advantage in that those extra horses add to the pot for the winner. It’s not unusual at Keeneland to bet on a 4-1ML and collect $20 on a $2 bet because most of the money drifted elsewhere.

And jockeys, trainers and owners, oh my! In Keeneland’s 18 day meet there is little time to catch jockeys or trainers on a winning streak or see the development of a jockey/trainer combo to help give the bettor an edge. And, because the Keeneland fall meet is so close to the Breeders’ Cup and to Churchill Downs’ fall meet, many jockeys and trainers are heading north to Louisville to get settled in even before Keeneland is officially over. And before you know it, “You are seeing names of jockeys you aint never seen before!”

To help prove my point about the difficult nature of Keeneland’s races I pulled up a study that appeared in the DRF earlier this year and the two major tracks with the least number of favorites winning are Del Mar and Keeneland. These tracks showed about a 30% win result for favorites. Whereas, Suffolk, Lone Star and River Downs, with meets almost 3 times as long, are at a whopping 42% win rate. Despite the difficulty I wouldn’t change a thing about Keeneland and I accept it as the ultimate challenge that it is.

There are a couple of sure bets at Keeneland and both pay off handsomely. One is that they will never run out of good Kentucky Bourbon Whiskey. And the other sure bet is that they will serve you the most delicious Bread Pudding you will ever taste.

Handicappers and analysts alike know that Calvin Borel is as much a “factor” as Beyers figures, pace, placement, speed, conditions and the many other facets that go into trying to predict the possible outcome. A good rule of thumb these days is to pick your Derby winner and then compare everything about your selection against Borel and his mount.

However, at the Breeders’ Cup in November 2010, a year and a half ago, Calvin Borel exploded in the winner circle against a fellow jockey in a cup race and things haven’t bee the same since. After that altercation Borel’s numbers have plummeted. His earnings went from $7Million in that year of ’10 to half that figure (with more mounts) in ’11 and to only $330K in the 1st quarter of ’12. And this from a rider who is approaching his 5,000 win.

It seems that this jockey, known for his method of scrapping paint along the rail to save ground, hence nickname “Bo-Rail”, is in a major slump. Could it be his age? Well, just for comparison sake Willie Shoemaker raced till he was 59. Quite possibly it’s a mental thing that only Calvin can break through. To compound the problem is the fact that when jockeys quit winning then they quit getting to ride the winners, which tends to compound the process. He’s got a long way to go with only 9 wins for the year, as of this writing. He needs a break, or a string of breaks right now just to be considered for a mount on a Derby contender.

Knowing the capabilities and determination of Calvin Borel, my bet is on him to succeed. In fact over the next month and a half his name gets an extra check mark on the daily program or an extra star on the racing form when handicapping each race he rides. These are his “Hunger Games”, to get the best seat in the house at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. It’s where he belongs.

This time of year owners are meeting with trainers to decide which jockey will be guiding their prize mount. And recently, with the injuries to some leading riders, Gomez, Dominguez and others, the juggling of riders may become a bit complicated. And that is just what the doctor ordered for future Hall of Famer Borel. If he can just put together a string of wins or a major upset in the next month then he should get his mount and when he does, make sure you take notice of which 3 year old he is awarded so you can figure in the “Borel Factor” on Derby Day.

The main reasons race lovers go to the track are winning money, excitement and maybe camaraderie. It’s a wonderful escape from the everyday and is actually one of the few sports today where the fans are a part of the game. Horse racing at a race track or a simulcast location is not, by any means, passive. In fact, my handicapping service website is designed to help such race goers relieve some of the pressure in preparing their bets.

Back before simulcast came onto the scene bettors had one track and 30 minutes to figure a winner of one race with about 8 horses. It was relaxing and serene. Now, for the active bettor however, there are 3 to 7 tracks going at once and information on 25 to 100 horses every half hour to decipher and calculate and enumerate and strategize bets with exactas, trifectas, supers and pick 3,4,6’s, part wheels, keys… whew!…. well, to say the least it’s mind boggling but, oh, so much fun.

It’s a mental contest between bettor and fellow bettors and horses, jockeys and trainers. So concentration is very important and the disruption of focus can cause misjudgments, oversight and eventually the loss of funds. The following is a short list of people you will meet at the track or OTB that you must avoid and ignore at all cost in order to maintain concentration:

The Scooter…. This guy takes a seat about 3 chairs down and after about 2 races has moved to within an arms length. Do NOT make eye contact! In fact, next time you sit down angle your chair away from him in hopes that he’ll get the message.

The Question Man…. This is not the guy who asks, “Is this the end of the betting line?” No, it’s the guy who asks, “Whatta ya think of the 3 in the 7th?” or “Whatta ya got in the 5th?” (I like to say, “I got Evan Williams in the 5th” , and watch as he goes off trying to find it in the program). Always look too busy for idle chit chat and never answer horse questions seriously.

The Stander…. This is the guy that will stand up for hours at a time and unfortunately and many times in the middle of the aisle or in front of you as you watch the big screen. Here are a couple of hints. When standing in your way, just walk over them, bump their arm and remember to say excuse me, sir. When he stands in front of you to watch the race, let out a cough that would attract a Canadian goose. They usually clear your vision quickly.

The Wheeler Hog…. You’ve got “0” flashing next to the MTP (Minutes To Post) and you know you’ve got maybe 90 seconds to get your $20 Win bet in the books. Then you hear the conversation in front of you,”…and a $1 part-wheel tri 2458 over the 123458 over All” – “Sorry sir the 4 is scratched” – “Is this Aqueduct” – “Yes, sir.” – “OK, then take an exacta box with the 2458.” – “But sir, the 4 is still scratched.”….. When you hear something like this you have three things to do, go to another window if one is open, go to an automated teller if one is available or go to the concession stand and order a hot dog with chili, cheese, mustard and slaw if they have it. And hope that the horse you missed out on falters down the stretch to finish 7th.

If you are a serious bettor or a serious beginner, then, no matter what the type of character you may cross at the races, remember to always stay focused as if you are wearing blinkers. Be cordial and considerate at all times and be a good loser and a better bettor.

It’s one thing to bet a horse with a name of a favorite relative, or a town you lived in or a cat you once knew. If you bet every name that was familiar in your past – you wouldn’t have enough money to keep up with them all.  Moreover, the longer you live, the more of these bets you’ll be placing.

However, an “omen bet” goes one step further and almost into another demension as it becomes a message from beyond. And, the limited knowlege of the beyond that I possess is that “they” (whoever they may be) know more than we do and that “they” are trying to give us a sign or clue of some kind from the never never land.

The basics of an omen bet, therefore, is two parts.  The name of the familiar and something familiar with the familiar.

For example, when you see on the program a horse with the name “Ted” and you had an Uncle Ted, that should make you remember that person (if it’s someone special in your life, of course).  But, in this example the horse’s name is Joke King Ted and your Uncle always had a new joke whenever he came around – there’s your “omen bet”.

Remember that this bet is personal and only YOU or someone that experienced the same will see the importance. If you put $10 to win on Nancy Pants and your sister, Nancy, always wore colorful bell bottoms and she’s going off at 30-1 don’t be surprised to get a funny look from the teller or the techno handicapper standing in the line next to you. They aren’t getting the same vibe from another world like you are about this horse who, by the way, is moving up in class, had to be vanned off a time or two recently and his best finish in his last 8 races was 7th.

There’s a theory that those in the hereafter give us signs all the time but we have to be open to those signs to be able to see them. So, keep an open mind and if a name on the program jumps out at you, it might be someone or something from your past giving you a tip from out of this world. Or, you could just be throwing your money away – only the shadows of the unkown will know for sure.

1905 – On February 24, Oaklawn Park Race Track opened its doors to a crowd of some 3,000 race fans. The day was declared a half-day holiday by Hot Springs officials.

1907 – Due to political problems in the state, racing was suspended.

1916 – Racing resumed at Oaklawn. The track is now owned by Louis Cella.

1936 – The Arkansas Derby was born with a purse $5,000.

1945 – Racing throughout the United States ended for an indefinite period at the request because of WWII. A 30-day season was held on November 5 through December 8 for the lost Spring meet. On opening day, an estimated crowd of 4,200 attended, and $189,289 was wagered.

1952 – Oaklawn gained national attention when its handle rose from a daily average of $336,341 to $434,667. Attendance climbs from 7,057 a day to 7,739.

1959 – The Meeting reached two milestones when its averages reached 10,000 in attendance and $500,000 pari-mutuel handle.

1960′s – Par 3 golf course in the infield was used in the off season.

1965 – Arkansas Derby purse increased to $50,000.

1970 – Records continue to be broken. During the 50-day meeting, a total crowd of 556,000 attended and bet $43,366,921. The average attendance was 11,120.

1973 – The first running of the Fantasy Stakes, for 3-year-old fillies, took place.

1974 – The Racing Festival of the South was born.

1980 – More than 250,000 fans attended the Racing Festival of the South. Temperence Hill won the Arkansas Derby.

1983 – Largest Average Daily Attendance Record Set 23,271 (still stands)

1984 – The purse for the Arkansas Derby was increased to $500,000.

1986 – The standing record single day attendance of 71,203 was set.

1991 – The Oaklawn Club was completely renovated.

1996 – Oaklawn Park race track achieved a record handle of $10,653,518 on Arkansas Derby Day.

2000 – Instant Racing, a pari-mutuel electronic system which allows players to wager on previously-run races, was introduced and field-tested at Oaklawn Park race track.

2011 – The average daily attendance grew 3% in 2011 from 2010 levels to 11,649.  Arkansas Derby Day saw an attendance of 62,364

There has never been a turf track at Oaklawn Park.
Horseplayers Association has ranked Oaklawn Park as the 9th best track in all of North America.  And, in my opinion, should be a “must see” by all who love the sport of Kings.

RE-POSTED

The 10 cent Pick-6 will be awarded to one unique ticket. On days there are multiple winners, 60 percent of the pool will be shared equally while 40 percent goes back into the jackpot.

That is the official description of the “Rainbow” pick six at Gulfstream Park.  The ten cent entry fee makes it possible for the small player to have a chance with multiple entries at a low price. But the big players get an advantage also. A $25 bet can fetch up to 3 horses a race in each of the six races and for about $470 you get 6 per race and for about $10K you can cover almost every combination (10 per race), and that would be almost a sure winning ticket!

Now here’s the catch – you have to have the ONLY winning ticket to get the total prize.  And that is the equalizer since the payout with multiple winners is only 60%, your payout with the carryover at say $800K could range from $240K to, let’s say, $1,000 depending on how many betters hit all six. But that would be an advantage to the big players again.  Even with 12 horses a race the cost goes up to $30K (to cover every possible combination) and if you have 14 high rollers doing that then nobody will win it all and the big money will break even.

Then when the 60% is removed, the lower payout to the wheeler dealers is too risky to spend the big bucks to cover every bet. And that may open it up to the small better again.  But as long as the carryover is astronomical the big spenders will be fighting it out for the 60%.

And look for this monster to come to a finale, if no loner wins it all, on the last day of the Gulfstream meet when it will become a “mandatory payout”.  That will bring people out of the woodwork and into the tracks and to the simulcasting sites across the country.

This lure of the huge payout is adding to the attendance numbers at many locations across the country.  It has been a boon to Gulfstream, simulcasting sites and to our wonderful sport.  Thank you Gulfstream Park for this little pot of gold at the end of your Rainbow Pick Six.

Have you ever noticed a horse drop in class to a level that you think is a misprint? Well, depending on when you see that drop it could mean a huge opportunity. For example, a maiden, running against $48,000 maiden claimers and finishing mid-pack suddenly is entered in a $25,000 maiden claimer should get the red flags flying. Why would an owner risk losing his horse to a claim in this instance?

One reason may be he noticed something wrong during a workout or around the barn and is dumping the horse onto someone else and cutting his losses. Hey, it’s business.

But, there is another reason why this happens and that’s where the advantage to the bettor comes in to play. You see, in accounting, a stable or barn full of horses is considered “inventory”, and, on a tax return for a business, such inventory is taxable. Owners, therefore, in an attempt to “thin the herd” so to speak, clean out their inventory to benefit the bottom tax line. Some of these horses are sold outright but there’s another great way of selling off their inventory…. claiming races.

Drop the horse in claiming value to sell, pick up the win purse and get the horse off your inventory. It’s a possible horseman’s trifecta. So, for the bettor, how do we know the difference between dumping an unhealthy animal or just lowering the inventory?

The “inventory sale” usually happens at the following times:
End of Meet
When the meet comes to an end and the owner doesn’t plan on shipping the horse to another track or to another state, then sometimes it is financially smarter to sell the animal instead of spending money on feed, vet and miscellaneous costs for 6 to 8 months till the next season starts. Look for this to happen in the last couple of weeks of a meet.
End of Year
Great time to get the horse off the inventory and get a much needed tax break just before the last day of the year. Most retail businesses build up inventory for Christmas but use January to sell off the excess inventory to avoid a tax hit. And they use January 31st as the last day of the their business year. But in the racing business, the year end most commonly is the last day of December.

So watch for the huge drop in class and then consult the area track schedules and the calendar. You may be surprised how much you can make on a good ol’ fashion “close out sale”!