-by The Track Philosopher
Only place a serious wager on pre-calculated decisions for maximum profit.
That calculation may be made personally or by an outside contractor or source.
The law of risk/return must be followed. The higher the risk, the higher the return and the lower the risk, the lower the return.
Amendment: When the potential reward rises above the Morning Line risk figures, this is called an overlay and should be noted.
For profit purposes the serious wager is recommended to be the Win bet only.
In order to hedge that win bet, the bet to Place is also recommended. Only use the hedge bet or place bet if the odds are higher than 3-1. Otherwise, your rate of return will not be worth the risk.
Start your day at the track or at the off track betting parlor or web site with a
designated amount, also called a bank. This amount is to be non-negotiable, in
other words, do NOT veer from this figure as your limit. For example, $200 cash
with the decision to allow an additional $100 or $200 depending on your personal status.
The total amount should NEVER exceed 10% of your immediate savings.
Betting is like running a horse race. Start out slow, pace yourself and finish strong.
Start out slow: Because most early races are run by maidens and lightly raced claimers, they are harder to calculate so don’t bet heavy.
Pace yourself: Always keep your powder dry with enough funds to increase the bet when opportunity knocks.
Finish strong: The object is to be betting with the track’s money as you leave the building.
The Bettor has 3 main goals:
1) Always FINISH the day with a profit. Try to make this an unwritten law!
2) Win BIG without signing your name to any papers. (See Theorem #7)
3) Have FUN! It’s a business but it’s one you should enjoy.
Big trifectas are fun to win but can be a very rare occurrence and a costly one too. For example, if you win an amount over $600 on a $1 bet or more and if you only take the standard deduction on your tax return form, then you not only have to claim the winnings as income but you cannot deduct gambling losses to offset the winnings since you are getting the standard deduction. And that extra income can often times change the tax bracket which can change your tax rate!
Simulcasting: (Limit Your Focus)
Fifty years ago, race goers attended a day at the races at the physical track and participated in each of the day’s 10 or so races. There was a half an hour between races to take a break, get something to eat or drink, walk around the paddock area, hang out at the rail, talk to a stranger or two, check out the people or horses, read the form and the program, watch the parade of horses to the starting gate and place your bet.
Today, there is all that, and 4 to 8 other tracks showing on monitors in every corner and above every concession stand, and behind the bars and at tables everywhere.
So many tracks at once can be confusing. Other races going on while you’re concentrating is distracting. There is a tendency to make hurried bets that are not smart bets. Trying to get in on every race can deplete your bank during a losing streak quickly. Many times you find yourself missing the running of the race because you’re head is in the form.
The wonderful ability to throw out non-betable races which before would put you out of the action for a half hour to an hour and a half with no wager. “When in Doubt, Throw it Out!” All maiden races can be discarded if so desired and races that only have a handful of horses with the favorite at 1-9. In addition, you can focus on the major tracks that you feel comfortable with.
Never, ever, never, ever change your bet! If you place your bet and on your way back to your seat find out your ticket is wrong, buy another one. If you bet a race at the wrong track, buy another one. If you change your mind on which horse will win the race, buy another one.
Once you change your bet it will surely blow up in your face!
The Omen Bet or Fun Bet:
Any horse with your name or the name of a relative or the name of an old boy/girl friend or the name of your cat or dog…. Bet it, especially if the odds are high.
Any horse with a funny or unusually clever name…. bet it. Names like Baddabing Baddabam, Hold the Beans, Rusty Knuckles, Kakalaki, Bingobangobongo, well, you get the picture.
These are FUN bets and should be only $2 win, place bets.
The Show Bet:
This bet should only be bet in 2 circumstances.
1) In an Across The Board Bet which is a Win, Place and Show bet rolled into one.
2) In “The Show Parlay” System
This betting system is a parlay in which the bettor starts with a small amount and bets a horse to show. The proceeds from the payoff is then placed on a horse to show on the next race. This is repeated several times until the amount accumulates to the level that the bettor wishes to stop and cash in or start over.
More theorems will be listed at a later date……..